Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #12
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #12 |
How
could an effective development program be structured? |
| |
We need to
understand the factors that will affect the success of a targeted or crash
program. |
| Subquestion |
How can the
scientists and engineers be engaged in the project? |
| Preliminary answer |
A lesson from the
computer industry may be relevant here: Hire people who are too young to
know what's impossible. Once feasibility is established (or assumed, for a
crash project), skeptical scientists should not be put in charge of
research. In fact, the people in charge should probably be engineers, not
scientists. |
| Subquestion |
How could it
be funded? |
| Preliminary answer |
An incremental
project, funded by spinoff developments and near-term goals, would take too
long. A crash project will probably be funded by a military budget or by
politics of national pride. Since the biggest results will come at the end,
funding will have to be based on long-term thinking. This may be hard to do
in either U.S. business or political systems, but might be more achievable
in other systems including U.S. military and non-American top-down planning
systems. |
| Subquestion |
How could
bureaucratic friction be minimized? |
| Preliminary answer |
As with funding, a
minimum of interference from outside once the project is started will be a
big help. Organizational design and culture will be important to minimize
internal politics. Trust in team leaders will be crucial to minimize the
need for detailed oversight. |
| Subquestion |
How could
innovation be maximized? |
| Preliminary answer |
Don't let the most
cautious/skeptical people control the funding. Make sure that the goal is to
weed out approaches that can't work rather than to fund only projects that
are sure to work. |
| Subquestion |
How can the
shortest path be rapidly invented and identified? |
| Preliminary answer |
A contest would be
a good way to generate lots of suggestions. If a short path is not obvious,
then investigate in parallel with a goal of rapidly establishing feasibility
of each path. |
| Subquestion |
How should
the overall project be structured? |
| Preliminary answer |
This depends on
how much of a hurry you're in, and how early a development pathway can be
identified. If you're in a big hurry, start work in parallel on CAD
software, mechanosynthesis, nanomachine design, and nanofactory design. |
| Subquestion |
Under what
(corporate or governmental) cultures could an effective program take place? |
| Preliminary answer |
Given the likely
intense competition, an effective program would have to be fast. Silicon
Valley is probably a good place to look for inspiration. |
| Subquestion |
How can
development time be minimized? |
| Preliminary answer |
Nanoscale lab
techniques are developing rapidly; so is ability to test mechanosynthesis in
simulation. And nanomachine design may turn out to be not all that
complicated—as long as you have good software. Software is likely to take
the longest to develop, since it involves an industrial-strength
CAD/simulation system covering multiple length scales, several different
kinds of simulation packages, and lots of physics bookkeeping. But starting
software even before the preliminary science results come back would be hard
to justify in terms of traditional product planning. |
| Subquestion |
What cost
and time overruns should be expected? |
| Preliminary answer |
These can't really
be estimated until the project is started. |
| Conclusion |
An effective development program would probably include several features
not easily implemented in Western corporate or government-funded programs,
with the possible exception of a few crash military projects. A
central-planning approach to obtaining plentiful funding (probably multiple
billions of US$) combined with a semi-autonomous approach to design work is
probably the fastest approach.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
