Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #27
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #27 |
What
effect could this have on geopolitics? |
| |
Explore the
impact that molecular manufacturing will have on the current habit of
maintaining sovereign nations. |
| Subquestion |
What would be the
effects on international relations of reduced international trade,
especially in oil? |
| Preliminary answer |
Reduced demand
for oil from the Middle East probably would be highly beneficial to
international relations. Reduced international trade in general probably would not be beneficial, since it would reduce the interdependence of
nations. |
| Subquestion |
Can a
technology-driven arms race be stable? |
| Preliminary answer |
Probably not. See
study #20 for
analysis of how and why a nano-weapons arms race would be more unstable on
several counts than the nuclear arms race has been. |
| Subquestion |
What would be the
effects of nationwide changes in lifestyle and personal resources? How
quickly could those effects happen? |
| Preliminary answer |
We might predict
a lower birth rate, substantially lower death rate, and greatly increased
healthspan. Access to more information could produce better democratic
governance, or simply more distraction and disinterest. Other effects should
be studied. |
| Subquestion |
To what extent
will these technologies require worldwide policing? What problems does
worldwide policing create? |
| Preliminary answer |
An unrestricted
nanofactory anywhere in the world could be used to build weapons of mass
destruction with global reach. For this reason alone, it appears that either
the technology or its users absolutely must be restricted/policed, unless
(which we believe unlikely) it turns out that defense is superior to offense
for all product technologies (see
study #20). |
| |
Policing, unlike
military occupation, requires that the population accept the legitimacy of
the force. No legitimate worldwide policing organization exists today.
Nations cannot police each other sustainably. But many nations cannot police
themselves. To the extent that international policing is required, it will
add to social unrest unless a new structure is developed that can coordinate
and support national policing efforts while retaining national sovereignty. |
| Subquestion |
What is the
possibility of preemptive strikes to prevent development in other nations? |
| Preliminary answer |
Each nation will
see only a few possibilities: 1) an arms race that will probably be
unwinnable since it will develop into a disastrous war (see
#20); 2) developing
ahead of everyone else and establishing dominance; 3) some other nation
developing earlier and establishing dominance; 4) international cooperation
and trust sufficient to ensure safety; 5) a multinational organization
willing and able to keep the peace. |
| |
Option 1 is
undesirable; Option 3 is probably unthinkable for any of the current large
powers; Option 5 is probably unacceptable to the U.S., as the world’s sole
superpower; Option 4 may be seen as unfeasible. Only one nation can succeed
at Option 2. This implies that a preemptive strike option (whether military
attack, or sabotage or derailment of nanotech development efforts) will
appear very attractive to a number of powerful nations. |
| Subquestion |
What barriers to
international cooperation could make these problems more difficult to solve? |
| Preliminary answer |
Culture clash,
lack of trust, xenophobia, religious fundamentalism, grandiose or aggressive
national leadership. Increased information and reduction in poverty could
reduce these factors eventually, though it could also reduce the
interdependence that provides one incentive for cooperation. |
| Conclusion |
Molecular manufacturing technology is powerful enough to require new ways
of interaction between nations.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
