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Current Results of Our Research
These pages, marked with
GREEN headings, are published for
comment and criticism. These
are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change.
LOG OF UPDATES
CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings
Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #21
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #21 |
What
effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics? |
| |
It has been
predicted that a sufficiently advanced and general-purpose molecular
manufacturing technology could have a significant transformative and
potentially disruptive effect. This must be explored. |
| Subquestion |
How quickly can
new products be invented, designed and distributed? |
| Preliminary answer |
As described in
other studies, this can be extremely quick due to fast prototyping,
point-of-use manufacture, and low risk. |
| Subquestion |
How will
distributed manufacturing affect the supply chain? |
| Preliminary answer |
It will eliminate
the supply chain for superseded products and their components. |
| Subquestion |
How will
automated manufacturing affect jobs? |
| Preliminary answer |
It will eliminate
manufacturing jobs for superseded products, as well as related
transportation, storage, and extraction jobs. It may create design and
installation jobs (though a lot of installation can be done robotically).
Compare manufacturing jobs with the percentage of population involved in
agriculture from 1900 to today: 37.5% to 0.5%, almost a two order of
magnitude decrease. |
| Subquestion |
How will
increased material self-sufficiency affect international and local trade? |
| Preliminary answer |
Trade in raw
materials and finished products will be reduced. Depending on policy, trade
in intellectual property may be either reduced or increased. |
| Subquestion |
How will simpler
material requirements affect extraction? |
| Preliminary answer |
Extraction will
probably be unnecessary to support diamondoid manufacturing, though limited
quantities of fossil fuels may be useful as a carbon source. |
| Subquestion |
Will energy
production, storage, and/or distribution be impacted? |
| Preliminary answer |
The ability to
collect and store solar energy cheaply will greatly reduce the need for
fossil fuels and the power grid. Also, products (including houses) can
become much more efficient, further reducing energy demand. |
| Subquestion |
How much
incentive will there be to use molecular manufacturing? |
| Preliminary answer |
Its products will
be multiple orders of magnitude better on several counts. Also, they'll
probably be at least one order of magnitude cheaper to produce, and
completely bypass substantial parts of the current production and
distribution chain. |
|
It's said that a
tenfold improvement (one order of magnitude) is sufficient for a new product
or method to displace existing ones. Nanofactory-built products greatly
exceed this criterion, so new companies could out-compete existing ones that
are not quick to adopt it. |
| Conclusion |
This is likely to have a large and rapid effect on economics of
manufactured products. Existing businesses that don't adopt it will be
out-competed by new businesses.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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