Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #26
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #26 |
What
are the disaster/disruption scenarios? |
| |
Determine which
of the following scenarios are plausible, and if so, whether they are
survivable or preventable. |
|
Subquestion |
Massive war? |
| Preliminary answer |
Highly plausible.
A nano arms race appears almost inevitable, and would probably be unstable
as discussed in the military capabilities study (#20). |
|
A nano-enabled
war would probably be lethal to many civilians. As pointed out by
Tom McCarthy, "Military planners will seek a target that is large enough
to find and hit, and that cannot be easily replaced. The natural choice,
given the circumstances, will be civilian populations." Both full-scale war
and unconventional/terroristic war will target civilians, who will be nearly
impossible to defend without major lifestyle changes. It would be easy to
deploy enough antipersonnel weapons to make the earth unsurvivable by
unprotected humans. |
| Subquestion |
Economic
meltdown? |
| Preliminary answer |
It's easy to
imagine a nanofactory
package that allows completely self-sufficient living, off grid and without
money, while retaining modern first-world comfort levels. However, a modest
amount of advertising would make this unattractive to most people.
|
|
As discussed
elsewhere, we can expect a large fraction of jobs in a wide range of areas
related to manufacturing, extraction, and supply to disappear. This problem
is already appearing with increased automation and efficiency, but could
rapidly get worse. |
| |
The factors that
lead to economic meltdown also provide increased self-sufficiency, so it
ought to be survivable in the absence of oppressive policy (maintaining
artificial scarcity while removing sources of income). Secondary effects
from social disruption may be problematic but ought to be survivable.
|
| |
Attempts to
subsidize dead-end jobs will probably be harmful in the long run. Some
amount of economic disruption should be expected. Social engineering to
reduce the stigma of unemployment (why should unearned income be good for
the rich and bad for the poor?) and policy to allow displaced workers to
share in the benefits of the new technology will be helpful. |
| Subquestion |
Runaway
self-replication? |
| Preliminary answer |
Also known as the
'grey goo' scenario,
this is perhaps the earliest and most famous concern related to molecular
manufacturing. Contrary to early statements by Drexler, this could not
happen accidentally; manufacturing systems, even early lab versions, will
not remotely have the capability to become self-contained free-range
self-replicators. However, the deliberate combination of a very small
nanofactory, a very small chemical plant to convert organic chemicals into
feedstock, and some robotics, could be a substantial nuisance or even
threat. Eventually, the technology will develop to the point where it will
be easy to make a device that requires active cleanup to avoid widespread
environmental damage. The prevalence of computer viruses implies that
creating such devices will be attractive to certain personality types, and
eventually within their capability. |
| |
So, although
runaway self-replication is not a first-rank concern, eventually it will
need to be studied, and some combination of prevention and cleanup
capability probably will have to be implemented. In theory, this could pose
an
existential threat. |
| Subquestion |
Dangerous
software? |
| Preliminary answer |
An arms race
(either military or corporate—in fact, conducted by any organization) could
involve the development of increasingly capable AIs for the purpose of
manipulating or coercing people. Note that this does not require full
general intelligence. A variety of manipulative techniques (on either human
psychology or other complex systems) can be imagined using only specialized
data-processing. |
| |
Some theorists
believe that a
self-improving AI could pose an existential threat: almost any command
would cause unexpected and massively disruptive side effects. We do not know
whether this is plausible. But nanotech development will certainly be an
enabling technology for powerful AI, though we may face this problem even
before nanotech is developed. Robert Freitas cites some of these concerns
going back decades in
Kinematic Self-Replicating Machines. Already, enough infrastructure
is computer-controlled to make a cyberspace attack potentially very
destructive. As more products become computer-integrated, a software attack
could shut down, damage, or subvert increasingly crucial functions. |
| |
The variety of
possible impacts on human psychology, computer-integrated infrastructure,
and other systems (e.g. the effect of computer trading on the stock market)
implies that this whole area should be extensively and creatively studied. |
| Subquestion |
Moral or social
meltdown? |
| Preliminary answer |
The availability
of new products and lifestyles may cause disruption in social fabric,
especially in conservative societies that may actively resist change. This
may inspire a backlash, possibly including force. It is likely to destroy
some cultures. Broader effects are unknown. |
| Subquestion |
Environmental
devastation by overproduction? |
| Preliminary answer |
It would be easy
to build enough nano-litter to cause serious pollution problems. Small
nano-built devices in particular will be difficult to collect after use. It
will also be easy to consume enough energy to change microclimate and even
global climate. |
|
Overpopulation is
probably not a concern, even in the event of extreme life/health extension.
The more people use high technology, the fewer children they seem to have.
|
| Subquestion |
Health impacts
from nano-built products? |
| Preliminary answer |
Not enough is yet
known about the lifecycle and potential toxicity issues of products (or
by-products) from molecular manufacturing to give a good answer. Some of
these concerns may fall into familiar categories of chemical waste disposal
and thus are fairly well explored, but the massive volume of materials that
could be produced in exponentially proliferating nanofactories could
complicate the problems enormously. |
| Conclusion |
Several plausible disaster scenarios appear to pose existential threats
to the human race.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
