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Nanotech Scenario Series
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Current Results of Our Research
These pages, marked with
GREEN headings, are published for
comment and criticism. These
are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change.
LOG OF UPDATES
CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings
Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #14
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #14 |
How
capable will the products be? |
| |
These questions
will be answered for products of
diamondoid systems based on the
Phoenix nanofactory design. |
| Subquestion |
What
materials will the products be built of? |
| Preliminary answer |
3D carbon lattice:
basically, diamond. |
| Subquestion |
Does the
product functionality include: Digital logic? Analog signal processing?
Energy storage, transmission, and transformation? Linear and rotational
actuators? Structure, at multiple scales? Kinematics, at multiple scales?
Displays? Sensors? Biocompatibility? |
| Preliminary answer |
Digital: yes (see
Nanosystems).
Analog: probably (physical systems—cams, springs, etc). Energy
storage: atomically precise springs can store energy at near-chemical
density. Energy transmission: mechanical looks quite efficient. Energy
transformation: yes, electrical <-> mechanical with very high efficiency and
power density. Actuators: yes, both rotational and solenoid-like.
Structure: from nanometer feature size (1 nm3 = ~176 diamond
atoms) (and even individual atoms in certain components, e.g. gear teeth) to
macroscale (with convergent assembly). Kinematics: yes, including
near-frictionless rotational and linear bearings. Displays: yes,
mechanical semaphores, maybe semiconductors also. Sensors: yes,
lots. Biocompatibility:
looks good so far. |
| Subquestion |
What will be
the efficiency of the various product functionalities? |
| Preliminary answer |
Excellent; see
Nanosystems.
Nanoscale bearings: 10-16 W. Logic operations: less than kT
per (reversible) gate at 1 GHz. |
| Subquestion |
How much
post-processing does the output need? |
| Preliminary answer |
Probably none.
Carbon is a very flexible element and the product can include a variety of
structure and appearance. See
Nanofactory paper section 7. |
| Subquestion |
Can the
system produce complete products, or only components? |
| Preliminary answer |
Complete products. |
| Subquestion |
What
components of itself can the system produce ('autoproduction')? |
| Preliminary answer |
All components. |
| Subquestion |
What new
capabilities can the products implement? (Machine-phase chemistry? Plasmonic
logic?) |
| Preliminary answer |
Machine-phase
chemistry: yes. Molecular electronics: Buckytube transistors have been
demonstrated. Optics and plasmonics: seems likely. Building biomolecules
(medicine, food): not without additional R&D. |
| Subquestion |
What subset
of desirable products can known design methodologies access? |
| Preliminary answer |
The nanofactory is
well-suited for levels of abstraction (similar to software design). A single
'nanoblock' can contain hundreds or thousands of parts, enough to implement
general-purpose behavior (motor, computer, etc). The combination of these
into systems, 'smart materials', and products appears to encompass most
conceivable functionality at all scales above 100 nm. Smaller functions such
as molecular manipulation would have to be individually designed, though
this may be straightforward for many tasks. |
| Conclusion |
The output of the nanofactory would be fully finished and highly advanced
products.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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