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Current Results of Our Research
These pages, marked with
GREEN headings, are published for
comment and criticism. These
are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change.
LOG OF UPDATES
CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings
Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #13
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #13 |
What
is the probable capability of the manufacturing system? |
| |
How much product
per hour? How many features per hour? How much input, and what kind? How
much waste? These questions will be answered for
diamondoid systems based on the
Phoenix nanofactory design. |
| Subquestion |
Does the
system require human supervision or intervention while operating? |
| Preliminary answer |
No. The
(calculated) extremely high reliability of mechanosynthesis should allow
completely autonomous operation; see Drexler,
Nanosystems.
Convergent assembly can use very simple robotics. With a reasonably low
error rate in each fabrication unit permitting a reasonably low degree of
unit-level redundancy, the nanofactory can take units offline permanently at
any failure, and so would not need repair. |
| Subquestion |
How many
features per second (complexity) will the system produce? |
| Preliminary answer |
Each fabrication
unit might produce 1,000 to 10,000 features per second: 10 to 100 atoms per
feature, 100,000 atoms placed per unit per second. A less primitive design
might place a million or more atoms per second. Each unit would be
independently addressable with any of several thousand or million program
streams. Basically, the product complexity is limited by the information
that can be downloaded into the factory over a fast network in the few-hour
fabrication time. This could easily amount to several terabytes—far more
complexity than would be needed for most products. (For comparison, human
DNA is several gigabytes.) |
| Subquestion |
What error
rate will be built into the product components? |
| Preliminary answer |
With primitive
mechanochemical hardware, fewer than 1 in 108 atoms should be out
of place. Better designs should be able to achieve 1 in 1015. At
this point, damage from environmental radiation becomes a bigger concern. |
| Subquestion |
How many
grams per hour will the system produce? |
| Preliminary answer |
A small-scale
manufacturing system with no redundancy and external computer control might
fabricate its mass in several hours. Scaled to tabletop size, it could take
the better part of a day, but might be much quicker with more advanced
designs. A single box massing a few kg could produce ~1 kg/hr in the
reference design. |
| Subquestion |
What raw
materials will the system require? |
| Preliminary answer |
Some small
carbon-rich molecule, not yet specified. |
| Subquestion |
What waste
will it produce? |
| Preliminary answer |
Not yet specified.
Ideally it would produce harmless or useful molecules such as water and
hydrocarbons. The
reference design also uses ~250 kWh/kg energy. |
| Conclusion |
The reference design would be easy and cheap to use, producing its mass
in probably less than a day. Its products could be quite complex—limited by
design capabilities rather than limitations inherent in the nanofactory
architecture.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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