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Nanotech Scenario Series
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Current Results of Our Research
These pages, marked with
GREEN headings, are published for
comment and criticism. These
are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change.
LOG OF UPDATES
CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings
Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #18
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #18 |
What
new products will the system make accessible? |
| |
For each suggested
field, determine if a molecular manufacturing system would allow significant
advances compared with what can be built by alternative systems. |
| Subquestion |
Aerospace? |
| Preliminary answer |
Yes. Figure an
airplane (spacecraft, missile) might weigh 1% of its current dry weight,
with essentially unlimited onboard computer power. Also, smaller actuators
will make shape-changing and active skin feasible and even cheap.
Continuously inverting skin might allow more efficient and higher-speed
designs. |
| Subquestion |
Computational systems: data mining, strong artificial intelligence? |
| Preliminary answer |
For comparison,
the
NEC Earth Simulator could be built in a cubic millimeter and draw 2
watts. |
| Subquestion |
Medical,
including human enhancement? |
| Preliminary answer |
Yes. A basic
computer/sensor package could be smaller than a neuron. This could easily
allow direct high-bandwidth brain-to-computer communication; already,
primitive brain-implanted electrode arrays have detected a rat's position
with respect to its cage, a monkey's intention to move its arm, and the
image from a cat's optical nerve. |
| Subquestion |
Weapons (a
very broad category)? |
| Preliminary answer |
Yes. For example:
micro UAVs with sufficient functionality to be loaded with chemical poisons;
electrical power density high enough to enable new classes of projectile
weapons; cheap deployment of massive systems or networks; expanding-microtruss
fuel-air explosives; much easier access to space. |
| Conclusion |
Diamondoid nanofactory molecular manufacturing would allow fundamentally
new products in several important and problematic areas. It is impossible to
predict or make a comprehensive list of all products that could be created.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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