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Nanotech Scenario Series
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Current Results of Our Research
These pages, marked with
GREEN headings, are published for
comment and criticism. These
are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change.
LOG OF UPDATES
CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings
Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #17
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #17 |
Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper? |
| |
For each suggested
product, determine if the cost, compactness, or functionality could be
enhanced by an order of magnitude or more, compared to present alternatives. |
| Subquestion |
Computers
(logic)? |
| Preliminary answer |
More efficient by
six orders of magnitude. Smaller by perhaps four (vs. transistor) or
seven (vs. packaged chip) orders of magnitude. |
| Subquestion |
Basic
physical structure? |
| Preliminary answer |
Maybe two orders
lighter for tension, more for compression. Due to more efficient use of
material, the cost of finished products may be substantially less than
today's raw materials cost for a comparable product. |
| Subquestion |
Actuators? |
| Preliminary answer |
Eight orders of
magnitude smaller vs. today's electric motors. |
| Subquestion |
Avionics? |
| Preliminary answer |
Perhaps three or
four orders of magnitude lighter. |
| Subquestion |
Medical
devices? |
| Preliminary answer |
Molecular sensors
may be sub-micron; actuators likewise; whole new classes of device will
become possible. These new classes will show improvements of 10-1000 fold
over natural biological systems (a technically defensible claim, based on
Robert Freitas's device design papers,
Nanomedicine, etc.). |
| Subquestion |
Sensors? |
| Preliminary answer |
Many sensors will
be many orders of magnitude smaller and cheaper. More precise for nearly all
sensors, due to more precise manufacturing and accessibility of higher-tech
detection and amplification. |
| Subquestion |
Integrated
systems (e.g. robotics)? |
| Preliminary answer |
Similar to
avionics. Orders of magnitude more integrated computer power will allow
greater functionality. |
| Subquestion |
Compact
systems (e.g. surveillance, medical)? |
| Preliminary answer |
Yes. |
| Subquestion |
Energy
systems (e.g. solar collection, storage, transport/transmission)? |
| Preliminary answer |
Several kinds of
solar collector should be buildable with a few grams per square
meter/kilowatt. Several kinds of efficient energy storage are possible. |
| Subquestion |
Large
systems (e.g. infrastructure, civil engineering)? |
| Preliminary answer |
Cheap, fast
manufacturing of strong materials should allow large projects to be
undertaken. Fast design of special-purpose robotics should reduce labor
costs of installation, including for projects that must be fabricated in
pieces. |
| Conclusion |
Diamondoid nanofactory molecular manufacturing will be revolutionary and
highly disruptive in many areas of high-tech as well as low-tech
manufacturing, including aerospace, energy, and medical technologies.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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