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Nanotech Scenario Series
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Current Results of Our Research
These pages, marked with
GREEN headings, are published for
comment and criticism. These
are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change.
LOG OF UPDATES
CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings
Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #15
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #15 |
What
will the products cost? |
| |
How many dollars
per feature? Per kilogram? These questions will be answered for products of
diamondoid systems based on the
Phoenix nanofactory design. (Note: If the system can duplicate itself
completely, the cost may drop by orders of magnitude.) |
| Subquestion |
How much
will environmental maintenance cost? Labor? Raw materials? Energy? Waste
disposal? |
| Preliminary answer |
The personal nanofactory is
designed to operate in a shirtsleeve environment, with access to less than a
megawatt of energy and comparable cooling capacity. Labor is negligible. Raw
materials are likely to be cheap chemicals, though purification may add
somewhat to the cost. (Some filtration/molecular sorting is inherent in the
chemical uptake mechanism.) Energy (in a very primitive, inefficient design,
the Phoenix nanofactory) is perhaps $20/kg at today's rates (note that one
early product of the nanofactory system could be very cheap solar cells).
The waste should be highly pure, small organic molecules, at the worst
requiring incineration. |
| Subquestion |
How much
will post-processing cost? |
| Preliminary answer |
Nothing. |
| Subquestion |
How much
will product design cost? |
| Preliminary answer |
This depends
largely on the functionality of the product. As a first estimate, the cost
of most products will be dominated by the cost of software engineering to
implement the product's functions. |
| Subquestion |
How much
will the non-autoproduced components of the system cost (amortized)? |
| Preliminary answer |
All components can
be autoproduced. |
| Subquestion |
How much
will the autoproduced components of the system cost (amortized)? |
| Preliminary answer |
Nanofactories will
probably be limited by policy rather than utility, so the degree of use
can't be estimated. But they should be good for at least several trillion
US$ worth of product per year, and the development cost probably won't go
above $20 billion (and could be much less), so development cost should
contribute pennies on the dollar of value. |
| Subquestion |
What will be
the total product cost, per feature and per kilogram? |
| Preliminary answer |
A primitive design
may cost $10-100 per kg, based on costs for energy (as estimated in
Phoenix nanofactory paper) and highly pure chemicals. However, the
Phoenix design is deliberately crude: a lower bound, not a best-guess
estimate. With the use of more efficient mill-type mechanosynthesis, and the
use of nano-constructed filters/purifiers, cost may drop to pennies per kg. |
| |
Per feature: Since
fabrication is automated and bottom-up, details don't cost any extra. One kg
of product can include 1020 features; cost per feature is
negligible. Note that the superior material properties of diamond should
allow products to be orders of magnitude lighter than metal, plastic, or
even carbon-fiber versions; most large human-scale products will be
inflatable and will require tiny fractions of a gram per cubic centimeter to
maintain their shape. |
| Conclusion |
Product cost will be highly competitive with current high-tech products:
not just semiconductors, but entire telephones, computer monitors, and
aerospace hardware. Present calculations indicate it will even be
competitive with cheap materials in structural applications ($/strength
though perhaps not $/mass).
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
16. How rapidly could products be designed?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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