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Current Results of Our Research
These pages, marked with
GREEN headings, are published for
comment and criticism. These
are not our final findings; some of these opinions will probably change.
LOG OF UPDATES
CRN Research: Overview of Current Findings
Thirty Essential Nanotechnology Studies - #16
Overview of all studies: Because of the largely
unexpected transformational power of molecular manufacturing, it is urgent to
understand the issues raised. To date, there has not been anything approaching
an adequate study of these issues. CRN's recommended series of
thirty essential studies
is organized into five sections, covering fundamental theory, possible
technological capabilities, bootstrapping potential, product capabilities, and
policy questions. Several preliminary conclusions are stated, and because our
understanding points to a crisis, a parallel process of conducting the studies
is urged.
CRN is actively looking for researchers interested in
performing or assisting with this work. Please contact CRN Research Director
Chris Phoenix if you would like more information or if you have comments on
the proposed studies.
| Study #16 |
How
rapidly could products be designed? |
| |
What skills and
time are required to design a new product? These questions will be answered
for products of
diamondoid systems based on the
Phoenix nanofactory design. |
| Subquestion |
To what
extent can components be re-used between products? |
| Preliminary answer |
As noted in
Nanosystems and explored in “Nanofactory,”
a convergent-assembly system combining relatively large (e.g. 200-nm)
functional blocks should allow a few basic types of blocks to be built into
many different products. Most product designers will not have to worry about
chemistry or special nanoscale physics. |
| Subquestion |
To what
extent can low-level design be automated? |
| Preliminary answer |
Levels of
abstraction should allow design on the level of volume-filling specification
of nanoblocks. All lower levels can be computed, right down to the
mechanosynthesis. |
| Subquestion |
How quickly
and cheaply can product prototypes be built? |
| Preliminary answer |
As quickly and
cheaply as any finished product. The manufacturing steps can be computed
from the CAD specification of the product. There's no distinction between
prototype production and mass production. This also implies immediate
rollout/deployment once a product design is finished—no retooling,
retraining, or design-for-manufacture. |
| Subquestion |
How directly
applicable are current engineering methods? |
| Preliminary answer |
Once a set of
designs is developed to emulate familiar macro-scale structural and
functional components, crude products could be developed directly with
current engineering methods (with some advantages such as effectively
infinite tolerance and 'smart' materials). More sophisticated products
requiring micro- or nano-scale design may require new methods, though even
here the designer's job will be made easier by careful choice of lower-level
components. |
| Subquestion |
What new
engineering methods (e.g. fault tolerance, emergent architecture) need to be
invented to use this technology? |
| Preliminary answer |
Fault tolerance
will be a requirement. However, the extreme compactness and efficiency of
actuation and computation will allow massive overdesign and redundancy. For
example, a single computer may fail, but the incremental cost of three—or
even 100—parallel voting computers will be negligible in most applications. |
| Emergent
architecture and complicated software architectures will not be necessary
for products comparable to today's in functionality. |
| Mass-saving
structures will be desirable, especially in aerospace applications. Fractal
trusses and inflatable compression members are two simple possibilities. |
| Conclusion |
Design of products comparable to today's cutting edge may be even easier
than today's design methods.
|
| Other studies |
1.
Is
mechanically guided chemistry a viable basis for a manufacturing technology?
2. To what extent is molecular manufacturing counterintuitive and
underappreciated in a way that causes underestimation of its importance?
3. What is
the performance and potential of diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
4. What is the performance and potential of biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
5. What is the performance and potential of nucleic acid
manufacturing and products?
6. What other chemistries and options should be studied?
7. What
applicable sensing, manipulation, and fabrication tools exist?
8. What will be required to develop diamondoid machine-phase chemical
manufacturing and products?
9. What will be required to develop biological programmable
manufacturing and products?
10. What will be required to develop nucleic acid manufacturing and
products?
11. How rapidly will the cost of development decrease?
12. How could an effective development program be structured?
13. What is
the probable capability of the manufacturing system?
14. How capable will the products be?
15. What will the products cost?
17. Which
of today's products will the system make more accessible or cheaper?
18. What new products will the system make accessible?
19. What impact will the system have on production and distribution?
20. What effect will molecular manufacturing have on military and
government capability and planning, considering the implications of arms
races and unbalanced development?
21. What effect will this have on macro- and microeconomics?
22. How can proliferation and use of nanofactories and their products
be limited?
23. What effect will this have on policing?
24. What beneficial or desirable effects could this have?
25. What effect could this have on civil rights and liberties?
26. What are the disaster/disruption scenarios?
27. What effect could this have on geopolitics?
28. What policies toward development of molecular manufacturing does
all this suggest?
29. What policies toward administration of
molecular manufacturing does all this suggest?
30. How can appropriate policy be made and implemented?
|
| Studies should begin
immediately. |
The situation is
extremely urgent. The stakes are unprecedented, and the world is unprepared.
The basic findings of these studies should be verified as rapidly as
possible (months, not years). Policy preparation and planning for
implementation, likely including a crash development program, should begin
immediately. |
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